Cubs vs Brewers Game 5 NLDS: Odds, Picks & What the Winner Means

On October 11, 2025, the Game 5 of the 2025 National League Division Series turned American Family Field in Milwaukee into a pressure‑cooker as the Chicago Cubs faced the Milwaukee Brewers. The series was tied 2‑2, and the winner would lock up a spot in the National League Championship Series. The Brewers entered as –145 favorites, largely because the home team had won the first four games of the series. The Cubs, led by rookie right‑hander Shota Imanaga, needed a miracle on the road, while Milwaukee’s young lefty Jacob Misiorowski was tasked with sealing the deal in front of his own fans.

Series Overview and Home‑Field Pattern

The first two contests at American Family Field saw the Brewers dominate, posting a combined 8‑3 margin. The swing came when the teams swapped venues: the Cubs stormed back with back‑to‑back wins at Wrigley Field, including a 6‑0 rout on October 10. That set up a classic "home‑team‑wins‑every‑time" narrative – four straight victories, each on the pitcher’s home diamond. Historically, the Brewers have held a 85‑76 edge in head‑to‑head meetings, with 42 of those wins coming in Milwaukee. The data shows home teams in this clash have averaged 4.41 runs per game, while visitors have managed exactly 4.00.

Pitching Duel: Imanaga vs. Misiorowski

Both starters entered with big‑time pressure. Shota Imanaga, a 25‑year‑old right‑hander who logged a 2.71 ERA during the regular season, relied on a devastating mix of a sinking fastball and a sharp cutter. He had been dominant on the road, posting a 3.12 ERA in 42 road appearances. Opposite him, 23‑year‑old left‑hander Jacob Misiorowski carried a 3.04 ERA but struggled with command in his last ten outings (walks per nine innings rose to 4.2). The Brewers’ bullpen had already blown five of its last six saves, a red flag the betting market couldn’t ignore.

"We’re just trying to keep it simple," Imanaga said in a post‑game interview. "Throw my 94‑mph fastball, trust my defense, and let the game come to us." Meanwhile, Misiorowski, smiling wryly, added, "I know the crowd can be loud, but I feed off it. I just want to give the Brewers a chance to win at home." Both pitchers received nods from analysts who highlighted the matchup as a classic power‑vs‑control duel.

Betting Angles and What the Odds Reveal

The bookmakers set the Brewers as –145 favorites, reflecting both their superior regular‑season record (97‑65, 52‑29 at home) and the undeniable home‑field swing. The over/under for total runs was set at 5.5, with the betting public leaning toward the over for the Brewers alone – they had scored more than 2.5 runs in each of their previous six home meetings with Chicago. In the last ten games of the regular season, however, the Brewers went 4‑6, scoring an average of 3.5 runs while allowing 4.1. That dip prompted several sharp bettors to hedge, citing fatigue in the bullpen and a lingering ankle issue for third‑baseman Mike Moustakas.

MLB analyst Steve Schmitt noted, "The odds are short for a reason, but the Cubs have shown they can silence a crowd. If Imanaga can go six strong innings, the under could be a tempting play." The betting line also featured a run line of Brewers –1.5 at –120, suggesting the market expected a two‑run margin.

Impact of a Win: NLCS and Beyond

Should the Brewers inch past Chicago, they would meet the winner of the Arizona‑Los Angeles NLDS – a matchup that could set the stage for a historic World Series run. The last time Milwaukee reached the NLCS, they fell in six games to the Atlanta Braves, but the club’s front office claims the 2025 roster is deeper, especially on the left side of the diamond.

For the Cubs, a victory would snap a three‑year drought of NLDS exits and give manager David Ross his first postseason series win. "This is about the kids now," Ross said in a press conference before the game. "We’ve battled all season, and I want them to know that an entire city is behind them, even when we’re out there in Wisconsin."

Historical Context: Cubs‑Brewers Rivalry

The rivalry dates back to the 1967 season when the two clubs first met as division mates. Over the past decade, the Brewers have generally held the edge, winning eight of ten postseason meetings. Yet the Cubs have a knack for upsetting the odds; in 2022 they knocked out Milwaukee in a six‑game series despite being 1.5 games behind in the standings.

Statistically, the Cubs have performed better on the road in recent years, posting a 42‑39 away record in 2025. Their road win percentage of .518 is the highest since the 2016 season. By contrast, the Brewers have slumped slightly in October, with a 2‑3 record in the 2024 postseason.

Key Facts

• Series tied 2‑2 heading into Game 5 on Oct 11, 2025.
• Brewers favored at –145; over/under set at 5.5 runs.
• Starting pitchers: Shota Imanaga (Cubs) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers).
• Home‑team record in series: 4‑0 before Game 5.
• Winner advances to face the Arizona/Los Angeles NLDS victor in the NLCS.

What’s Next?

Regardless of the outcome, the next round will test depth. The Brewers will need to shore up a bullpen that has given up a run in 75% of its appearances this October. The Cubs, if victorious, must decide whether to ride Imanaga’s arm into the NLCS or pivot to a more seasoned left‑hander for the remainder of the postseason.